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Webinar Decarbonisation of the economy: modelling and planning challenges

Webinar speakers will share their experience and insights on modelling approaches for integrated analysis of deep decarbonisation of the economy utilizing energy planning tools. This webinar will include an overview of multi-sectoral modelling approach, which will be applied for An integrated modelling and analysis of the deep decarbonisation of the economy (DeCARB) project (LMTLT, agreement No. S-MIP-19-36). In Northern Europe wind power currently is the lowest cost carbon-free energy source. The speakers will present a specific methodology for modelling wind power plants in the long-term models by defining approximated wind power probability curves. Such method can increase the quality of long-term modelling results by including the short-term dynamics of renewables without a significant increase in model size. Transport sector is the second largest greenhouse gas emission source sector in the EU. During the webinar a detailed transport modeling approach will be presented, which includes modeling modal change, vehicle age distributions and flexible EV charging. Additionally, univariate/multivariate electricity price forecasting approach based on statistical econometrics models will be discussed.

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Eimantas Neniškis is a junior research associate in Lithuanian energy institute, a lecturer in Kaunas Technology University as well as Ph.D. student in economics. Currently he is working on his thesis "Integrated assessment of least-cost decarbonization pathways of transport and energy sectors" and is involved several projects related to energy planning and decarbonization pathways: An integrated modeling and analysis of the deep decarbonisation of the economy (DeCARB); Fast, flexible and secure decarbonisation of the Baltic states - possible progress in the next Ten years. (FasTen).


Arvydas Galinis is a Head of Laboratory of Energy Systems Research and a Chief research associate in Lithuanian Energy Institute. Arvydas has long term experience in modelling of energy sector development and operation analysis that covers wide range of research starting from entire energy sector development and operation analysis on broad regional scale (many interrelated countries) and ending with the analysis of single energy system (for example, electricity system, district heating system, etc.) or even single enterprise (for example, refinery, power plant, boiler house, etc.) development and operation analysis. Acquired experience was used for conducting various studies, preparing energy sector development plans and national strategies for Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia), Finland, Poland, Greece, Middle East and other countries. Modelling experience also covers inter-sectoral analysis of energy sector operation together with other branches of national economy (agriculture, forestry, water supply, etc.), taking into account environmental, sustainability and energy security issues. Arvydas has a unique experience is in modelling of reservation aspects in planning of electricity system development and operation, in balancing of intermittent electricity generation from renewable energy sources.

Egidijus Norvaiša is Research Associate at the Lithuanian Energy Institute, Laboratory of energy systems research. He is a member of IAEE. He has PhD degree (2005) from Kaunas University of Technology in energy systems development and operation analysis. He has more than twenty years of experience in the economic modelling and analysis of the energy systems future development scenarios using the MESSAGE and other mathematical modelling tools. His most recent research focuses on integrated modelling and analysis of the deep decarbonisation of the Lithuanian economy and also exploring cost-effective options to fasten the decarbonisation of the Baltic States across all energy sectors. The research of E. Norvaiša includes development of the specific modelling methodologies to overcome challenges related to representing variable renewable energy sources in long-term energy system optimisation models, capable of both investment and operational planning.

Mindaugas Česnavičius is an economics PhD candidate at Lithuanian Energy Institute. Before starting his doctoral studies, he received bachelor's degree in renewable energy engineering and master's degree in energy economics at Kaunas University of Technology. Supplementary, he graduated social science master in China at Zhejiang University. Mindaugas's PhD research concentrates on statistical energy field related data analysis, econometric models application and energy markets modelling.

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